CONFIRMED DEAL: Baltimore Orioles Second Baseman Jackson Holliday Accepted to Join the Braves on a Three Year Contract Worth $143.6 After….see more
Soon after Jackson Holliday reached the major leagues earlier this season, it was clear there was a problem.
On April 26, the club returned to Baltimore after a series in Anaheim, following another flurry of Holliday strikeouts. The 20-year-old uber prospect was called into the manager’s office; he was being sent down.
The demotion was a rare setback for the Orioles, and for one of their top prospects.
As the Orioles rose meteorically from a White Sox-like state a few years ago to today’s powerhouse status, they’ve done so largely through scouting and player development successes. They haven’t endured many stumbles in transitioning prospects into big leaguers.
Catcher Adley Rutschman, a former Baseball America No. 1 overall prospect, was a star-level player upon arrival. Gunnar Henderson’s transition has been seamless since his 2022 debut: No. 1 prospect, Rookie of the Year honors in 2023, and one of the best players in baseball in 2024.
Holliday’s story is different – at least the initial chapter.
Yes, Holliday was younger when he debuted, 20 years and 128 days old on April 10, so it’s not surprising there were some struggles.
But Holliday had one specific weakness, one fatal flaw in surviving at the major-league level that had to be addressed.
“I was missing fastballs up,” Holliday told theScore. “If you’re underneath it, you have no chance.”
Consider this April 16 swing and miss under an elevated Chris Paddack fastball for a strikeout:
In his first two weeks in the majors, Holliday saw 73 fastballs, swung 32 times, whiffed 19 times, and produced only one hit on those swings.
That’s a 59% whiff-per-swing rate against fastballs. The MLB average whiff rate is 21.7% against four-seamers and 13.8% against two-seamers.
While it was a small sample, it was alarming. And opponents attacked the weakness without mercy, because the scouting feedback loop is nearly instantaneous in today’s game.
Fastball velocity is at a record level this season in the majors, sitting at 94.4 mph according to pitch-tracking data. If a batter can’t handle velocity in today’s game, he won’t be in the majors for long.
The Orioles saw they had a problem, and they couldn’t afford to wait while competing in the AL East. Holliday had to reset, and they had a plan for how he could do it.
